The XRP price has been on a rollercoaster ride since hitting an all-time high of $3.65 in July 2025. After a promising start to the year, the altcoin has struggled to maintain bullish momentum, leaving many investors questioning the future trajectory of XRP. The recent launch of spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States was expected to provide a much-needed boost, increasing demand for the asset. However, the reality has been quite different; the ETFs have not alleviated the bearish pressure on XRP's price as anticipated.

In a recent analysis shared on the CryptoQuant platform, pseudonymous analyst PelinayPA shed light on the ongoing struggles of XRP. According to the analyst, a specific group of XRP whales has played a significant role in the altcoin's price decline. By examining the Exchange Inflow – Value Bands chart, PelinayPA identified that most inflows are originating from wallets containing between 100,000 to 1 million XRP and those holding over 1 million XRP. This whale activity has contributed to a price structure characterized by lower highs and lower lows, signaling an overwhelming supply that is outpacing demand.

Despite the lack of aggressive selling from these whales, the persistent increase in available supply is putting downward pressure on the XRP price. The analyst posits that should the current trend continue, XRP could see a drop to around $1.50 to $1.60 if exchange inflows persist. This forecast is based on the understanding that large transfers to centralized exchanges often act as precursors for selling pressure.

Interestingly, the expectation surrounding XRP's spot ETFs mirrored sentiments expressed during the launches of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, which were anticipated to spark institutional demand and elevate prices. However, the opposite has occurred. Market data reveals that since their debut in mid-November, the US-based spot XRP ETFs have not experienced a single negative outflow day. Currently, these ETFs boast a total net asset value exceeding $1.14 billion.

The analyst theorizes that as excitement about the ETF launch grew, whales began to offload their holdings on exchanges, thereby providing liquidity for retail investors eager to purchase XRP in anticipation of a price surge. This influx of sell-side liquidity has created selling pressure every time XRP approaches the $1.95 level, making it increasingly difficult for the price to gain traction.

For XRP to regain its bullish momentum, the exchange inflows must taper off. As it stands, XRP's price is hovering around $1.90, reflecting a minor uptick of over 3% in the past 24 hours. However, the market remains uncertain, and the prevailing sentiment indicates that the altcoin is still in a precarious position. Investors and analysts alike are keeping a close watch on whale activities and exchange inflows, as these factors will likely dictate the future direction of XRP's price.

The path ahead for XRP is filled with challenges, and while the ETF launch was expected to be a turning point, it has instead highlighted the complexities of market dynamics. With the influence of whale activities and ongoing selling pressure, the XRP community is left to ponder the implications for the altcoin's future. Only time will tell if XRP can shake off the bearish sentiment and find its footing once again.