Dogecoin’s recent price action has sparked discussions among analysts, particularly regarding its position in the current bear market. According to crypto YouTuber VisionPulsed, we might be approaching the late-stage 'capitulation' phase rather than a definitive bottom. In a recent video, he pointed out that the ongoing bullish sentiment on platforms like Crypto Twitter suggests that the market hasn’t yet inflicted enough pain on investors.

VisionPulsed framed the situation as a familiar cycle pattern, where retail optimism gradually diminishes. He noted that the final washout typically occurs when even the most ardent supporters lose their confidence in the asset. This, he believes, is crucial for establishing a sustainable low. 'More and more people are starting to get bearish. Once we break this low, it will be when everyone declares it bearish, but by then, it may be too late to act,' he stated.

He emphasized that the persistent bullish narratives from some YouTube influencers indicate that the market has yet to reach its necessary downturn. In his analysis, he observed how the same bearish indicators can recur, as each market cycle attracts a new cohort of traders who resist acknowledging the end of a bullish trend. This phenomenon is compounded by the incentive structure of crypto content creators, who often lean toward bullish sentiment to maintain engagement, even as broader market conditions worsen.

On technical indicators, VisionPulsed highlighted the significance of momentum tools like the Stochastic RSI for Bitcoin across various timeframes, which he considers a barometer for the entire crypto market. He cautioned against overconfidence in widely referenced catalysts, such as the CME gap, recalling a similar setup in May 2022 that ultimately fizzled out. 'If the market behaves as expected, we might see a bounce into overbought territory before another decline,' he said, underlining the unpredictable nature of market movements.

Additionally, VisionPulsed pointed out that capitulation lows often align with a narrative shock, or what he termed a 'black swan' event. He suggested that traders should be vigilant for such headlines, as they can become the scapegoat for a market downturn that was already in motion. Historical patterns, he mentioned, often signal a shift in emotional tone, where widespread pessimism can indicate a market bottom.

For Dogecoin specifically, VisionPulsed noted that previous bottoms have coincided with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reaching oversold conditions, a state DOGE has yet to achieve in its current decline. 'We’re likely one more leg down from hitting oversold,' he remarked, predicting that Dogecoin could drop to around 5 cents. Despite this, he refrained from pinpointing an exact bottom, allowing for scenarios where external macro shocks could induce further lows.

His base case, however, suggests that the correction may be nearing its end, with a significant rally anticipated after the spring. Looking further ahead, he speculated that Dogecoin’s 'real bull run' could kick off around July 2027. For now, his advice to DOGE traders is clear: until momentum resets and sentiment shifts dramatically, the prevailing narrative of an 'almost over' bear market may be premature. The next significant price move could be the catalyst that triggers widespread capitulation.