Bitcoin (BTC) extended its sharp sell-off on Thursday, briefly falling below the $67,000 level and marking its lowest price since November 2024. The renewed pressure follows commentary from market analyst Hugo Crypto, who pointed to a recent report from investment bank Stifel outlining a notably bearish outlook for Bitcoin. According to Stifel’s analysis, the leading cryptocurrency could continue declining toward $38,000. If reached, that target would represent an additional drop of roughly 43% from current levels and would place Bitcoin back at prices last seen in January 2024.

Stifel’s forecast is built on several macro and market-specific factors. The firm cited the impact of tighter US Federal Reserve (Fed) policy, ongoing uncertainty and stagnation around US crypto regulation, shrinking market liquidity, and sustained outflows from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). The bank also framed its outlook within the context of historical Bitcoin market cycles. According to Stifel, Bitcoin’s peak near $126,000 in October 2025 fits a familiar pattern seen in prior cycles, which have typically been followed by extended and deep drawdowns.

Additional warnings were echoed by market observer Walter Bloomberg, who highlighted weakening demand, a sharp slowdown in ETF inflows, and growing stress in derivatives markets. Futures markets, in particular, appear to be entering what he describes as a “forced deleveraging” phase, where leveraged positions are unwound rapidly, adding to selling pressure. ETF data from Thursday further illustrates the strain on market sentiment. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have so far recorded net outflows of approximately 7,925 BTC on the day, equivalent to about $533 million. Over the past seven days, net outflows have totaled roughly 19,090 BTC, or around $1.28 billion, reinforcing concerns that institutional demand is fading rather than providing support.

From a technical perspective, analyst MartyParty highlighted the importance of the $68,000 level, which Bitcoin would need to reclaim to stabilize in the near term. This area aligns with the 200-week exponential moving average, a level often viewed as critical during major market corrections. Failure to hold above that zone could open the door to a move toward the 200-week simple moving average, currently near $58,000, according to technical analysts. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading around $67,100, down roughly 8% on the day and more than 20% over the past week, based on CoinGecko data.