Bitcoin is experiencing significant market stress, struggling to reclaim the $90,000 mark. Despite efforts from bulls to defend current demand zones, the price action indicates a market under pressure. The cryptocurrency has retraced roughly 30% from its all-time high, placing it firmly in a corrective phase characterized by uncertainty and cautious trading behavior.

Recent reports highlight that market stress extends beyond just price fluctuations. Two key indicators, the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH SOPR) and the Profit and Loss (P/L) Block, reveal a broad realization of losses among participants, reflecting a deterioration in overall market sentiment. These metrics provide valuable insight into the behavior of short-term holders, who are typically more sensitive to price movements and macroeconomic uncertainties.

The STH SOPR measures whether coins held for less than 155 days are being sold at a profit or a loss. When this indicator falls below one, it suggests that recent buyers are realizing losses. Currently, the 7-day moving average of STH SOPR is hovering around 0.99, indicating that short-term holders are, on average, selling Bitcoin below their acquisition price. Such behavior usually signals heightened stress and emotional selling. Historically, similar conditions have marked local capitulation phases, during which selling pressure peaks and weaker hands exit the market.

As long as the SOPR 7-day average remains below one, short-term participants will likely stay in “stress mode.” A significant improvement would require a sustained move back above one on a daily close, indicating that sellers have exhausted their supply and buyers are once again absorbing sell-side pressure.

The P/L Block indicator, which aggregates the profit and loss state of market participants, currently reflects loss dominance with a P/L Score of minus three—classified as pronounced stress. With Bitcoin down 30% from its all-time high and posting negative returns over the last 30 days, both indicators reinforce a clear picture of capitulation among short-term holders.

Bitcoin's Price Analysis: Weekly Structure Remains Critical

On the weekly chart, Bitcoin is trading around the $89,900 level after a sharp rejection from the $120,000–$125,000 region. Although the price has retraced aggressively, it is now attempting to stabilize above the rising 200-week moving average, a level that has historically been significant for long-term trend validation. This area is currently acting as dynamic support, suggesting that buyers are attempting to defend the higher-cycle structure despite broader market weakness.

However, Bitcoin remains below the 50-week moving average, which is now trending downward. This configuration reflects a loss of medium-term momentum, confirming that the market is still in a corrective phase rather than transitioning back into an uptrend. The 100-week moving average continues to rise below the current price, underscoring the broader macro trend but also highlighting the excess built during the prior rally.

Volume has declined during this recent consolidation phase, signaling indecision rather than aggressive accumulation. Typically, such a scenario precedes an expansion of volatility. From a structural perspective, holding above the $85,000–$88,000 zone is critical. A sustained breakdown below the 200-week MA could lead to a deeper retracement toward the $75,000–$80,000 region. Conversely, reclaiming the 50-week MA near $95,000 would serve as an early signal that downside pressure is alleviating.

Until then, Bitcoin remains range-bound; long-term support is holding, yet momentum continues to appear fragile. The market's current state suggests that participants are navigating through a challenging landscape, where uncertainty and volatility are likely to persist. As traders remain vigilant, the focus will be on key levels to determine whether a recovery is on the horizon or if further declines are imminent. Investors will need to keep an eye on these indicators and price levels as the market continues to evolve, hoping for a shift in sentiment that could pave the way for a more stable and bullish environment.