XRP is currently exhibiting signs reminiscent of its behavior during the 2021-2022 cycle, as highlighted by on-chain analytics firm Glassnode. The firm reported that XRP recently slipped below its aggregate holder cost basis, a move that historically signals capitulation and loss realization. According to Glassnode, the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) has fallen significantly, indicating that holders are realizing considerable losses.

In a recent post, Glassnode noted that the SOPR dropped from 1.16 in July 2025 to 0.96, suggesting that many holders are now spending coins at a loss. This situation often arises when market conditions force sellers to exit, while bids predominantly come from long-term buyers. Glassnode drew parallels between the current market conditions and the period from September 2021 to May 2022, where prolonged consolidation followed a similar drop in SOPR.

On February 1, Glassnode also highlighted that XRP's realized price was trading at $1.48, reinforcing the idea that the current market structure echoes the one observed in April 2022. The firm has consistently pointed to this resemblance, indicating that new buyers are accumulating XRP at prices below the cost basis of longer-held supply.

Market reactions to the sub-1 SOPR regime have varied. Some participants view this as a typical capitulation signal, suggesting that weak hands are exiting the market at a loss. A user on social media framed this as a bottom-building scenario, emphasizing that such dynamics can lead to durable bases in the market.

Conversely, others have expressed caution, drawing parallels to Bitcoin's forced-selling episodes. They argue that a prolonged period of SOPR below 1 could lead to a transfer of pain from weaker to stronger hands, similar to historical trends. If this pattern holds, the focus may shift towards whether XRP can stabilize after exhausting marginal sellers.

As of now, XRP is trading at $1.4225, and analysts are keenly observing the market's next moves. The interplay between weak and strong hands will likely dictate how XRP navigates this challenging phase. Investors are left pondering whether the current environment will lead to recovery or further struggles.