Bitcoin is currently grappling with significant selling pressure, struggling to maintain the crucial $70,000 level. Market sentiment appears fragile, as buyers have consistently failed to reclaim higher resistance zones. Analysts are increasingly vocal about the elevated downside risks, particularly for short-term investors who are absorbing losses instead of accumulating more aggressively. A recent report by analyst Axel Adler sheds light on the mounting stress within this group. Data from the Bitcoin Short-Term Holders SOPR indicator reveals that many holders are realizing losses, sitting approximately 25% below their average acquisition cost. The SOPR metric, which measures the ratio of selling price to purchase price, has dipped to 0.949, with the 7-day average hovering around 0.97. Values below 1.0 indicate that coins are being sold at a loss, often a sign of forced liquidations or reactive selling behavior. Alarmingly, this indicator has remained below the threshold since mid-January, suggesting sustained market pressure rather than a temporary correction.

Historically, prolonged weakness in the SOPR alongside price stabilization can point to seller exhaustion. However, a significant move back above 1.0 is necessary to confirm a shift in market dynamics. Until that happens, the risk of further downside remains a concern. The Bitcoin Short-Term Holder MVRV indicator serves as additional evidence of distress among recent market participants. This metric compares the current market price with the average acquisition price of short-term holders, clearly illustrating unrealized profitability. An MVRV reading below 1.0 indicates that, on average, this cohort is holding positions at a loss. Recent figures show the STH MVRV plunging to around 0.752, with the cohort’s realized price near $95,400. With Bitcoin trading near $71,700, short-term holders are roughly 25% underwater. The gap between the market price and their cost basis—approximately $23,700—is currently the widest observed in this cycle, underscoring the scale of recent downward pressure.

Historically, MVRV readings dipping to or below the 0.8 level have often aligned with accumulation phases or local market bottoms. However, such signals are not definitive on their own. Confirmation usually requires price stabilization alongside a recovery in SOPR above 1.0, indicating that forced selling has subsided. Until such conditions are met, the data suggests ongoing fragility, despite increasing signs of capitulation.

Bitcoin’s weekly structure shows clear deterioration, especially after the price decisively broke below significant mid-range support near the $75K area. The latest candle indicates strong downside momentum, driving BTC toward the $70K zone while trading well below the 50-week moving average. Historically, prolonged trading below this average typically coincides with corrective or transitional bear phases, rather than bullish trends. The 100-week moving average, now slightly above $80K, has flipped from support to resistance, necessitating a reclaim of this level to stabilize market sentiment. Meanwhile, the 200-week average continues its upward trend near the $55K–$60K region, serving as a deeper macro support zone if selling pressure persists.

Volume expansion accompanying the latest decline suggests active distribution rather than mere low-liquidity drift. However, capitulation phases can exhibit similar volume characteristics, making interpretation reliant on whether follow-through selling continues or begins to dissipate. Structurally, Bitcoin now faces a critical test. Holding above the $68K–$70K range could allow for consolidation before an attempt at recovery. Conversely, a failure to stabilize at this level would elevate the chances of a deeper retracement toward longer-term moving average support, keeping the broader market cautious, despite growing oversold conditions.