According to Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management, much of the crypto complex already went through a down cycle last year. This was the case even though headline coins looked steadier. Heavy buying from ETFs and companies has kept Bitcoin, Ether, and XRP from showing the full brunt of those losses. In contrast, some tokens, without that same support, experienced significant declines— in many instances by about 50% to 60%. This behavior mirrors past bear phases.

Hougan emphasizes that ETF flows and corporate accumulation have shifted the market dynamics. When institutions buy more than the new supply, price pressure changes. He believes that the market has already seen its bottom. "We ran the four-year cycle last year," Hougan stated. "I think we’re coming back up."

The persistent buying from ETFs and corporations has created a solid bid under the market. Reports draw an interesting comparison to gold, where consistent central bank buying first stabilized prices and later propelled them into larger moves. Hougan suggests, "Just like gold eventually entered a parabolic move, Bitcoin will follow suit. We’re just earlier in that process."

Investors appear to be becoming more selective in their choices. This upcoming up-cycle, according to Hougan's perspective, will favor projects with clear use cases and consistent activity. Not every token that generates hype will capture attention. Networks associated with stablecoins, tokenization, and real infrastructure are likely to draw more capital, while lower-quality projects lacking users or a clear purpose may find themselves sidelined.

Amid these structural shifts, Bitcoin's price has kept traders engaged. Recently, BTC fell from earlier peaks to around 60,000 to 65,000, before finding buyers and rebounding above 65,000. Geopolitical headlines have influenced risk appetite, causing fluctuations that led to one of Bitcoin's rougher stretches in recent weeks. Traders are closely monitoring headlines, as news can trigger sudden, significant moves in price.

Long-term holders are starting to sell some of their coins, while institutional investors are moving in. This transition can feel disorganized. A sale wall often forms when early investors decide to take profits, with large institutions stepping in to absorb that supply. This kind of transfer has been observed in other asset classes as they mature, and it doesn’t necessarily indicate a weakening demand over the long run.

As the crypto market continues to evolve, the interplay between institutional buying and traditional investors will be critical in shaping future price movements. The signs of recovery that analysts like Hougan are pointing to could mark a turning point for Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies, steering them toward a more stable and growth-oriented phase.